You may be right.

Real Clear Politics poll averages already has McCain beating Romney in New Hampshire. This hit in Iowa may damage Romney further- though coming in 4th freaking place is no prize for McCain!

McCain 31.3
Romney 29.8
Giuliani 10.0
Huckabee 9.5
Paul 7.0
Thompson 2.0

I have no idea how NH voters will respond to the Iowa results. You have to expect a Huckabee bounce- but who does that come from? And who looks worse after Iowa- Romney or McCain?

I predict: Ron Paul!

Left by Preston on January 4th, 2008 at 10:49 am

On the Democratic side Obama seems more ready than Huckabee to benefit from Iowa.
New Hampshire polling averages from RCP:
Clinton 33.8
Obama 27.3
Edwards 17.8
Richardson 6.0
Biden 2.5
You have to expect a bump from Iowa as the non-Hillary vote coalesces around Obama.

Should be fun!

Left by Preston on January 4th, 2008 at 10:53 am

Iowa is a coffee klatch and means nothing to me, or history.
Reagan lost in Iowa, too.

Left by no2liberals on January 4th, 2008 at 12:03 pm

It sounds like you really want to believe that yet I’m willing to bet that Obama and Huckabee each outperform their recent polling in NH and Clinton underperforms as a result of the Iowa caucus.

Left by Preston on January 4th, 2008 at 12:46 pm

Preston, you have a serious malfunction.
I said what I said because I believe what I said.
You can live by polls if you want, not everyone does…and that’s the truth.
Bet on BS coffee klatch results and a tiny state population primary, as though it has greater significance?
My first sentence is reinforced.

Left by no2liberals on January 4th, 2008 at 8:41 pm

You doth protest too much, methinks.

The Iowa caucuses can pointed out as crucial in 76 and 2004 at the very least- coffee klatch or not.

Left by Preston on January 5th, 2008 at 8:20 am

I protest when someone tells me what I think or believe.
Iowa…is crucial?
Please!
Super Tuesday? Absolutely.

Left by no2liberals on January 5th, 2008 at 10:50 am

Both Iowa and NH are states that do not represent this nation on the whole. They both represent niche slices of Americana. It is the MEDIA that drives this election and make no mistake about that. They are clearly for Barack Hussein Obama and the gee shucks good old boy Huckabee. I personally hope obama does not get it, he will be harder to defeat than Clinton who is full of baggage. My problem with the Huckster is he is a social moderate at best. Yes he has the religious angle and is strong on right to life, but he is weak on immigration, taxes, college tuition breaks for illegals, and he is just to touchy feely for me. I want a strong, hard as a rock president, not some cuddly teddy bear to lead America out of the mess we are currently in. Admittedly I have to research further his stand on the war, but he will do nothing for finishing the border fence just like our pres. W. That to me is the absolute most pressing issue. This war in iraq will end one day, but this flood of illegals is bringing financial and cultural devastation that is permanent and forever. There is no turning back from this unforgivable weakness from our leaders on this issue. Our sell out Senator Hutchinson added an amendment to the border fence bill that stripped out all the teeth and she is a traitor to the history of this nation and all who ever fought and died to keep us a sovereign nation with definable borders. And what a slap in the face to all the people who came to this country and stood in line, took an oath, and did it the right way..Senator Hutchinson is a disgrace to Texas and the nation. Huckabee looks to me like another weak, politically correct moron like Hutchinson who will cave to mexico and the politically correct crowd just like all the rest……..we do not need that at this point in our history.

Left by marc on January 5th, 2008 at 12:45 pm

Marc- I think everyone acknowledges both that Iowa and NH don’t reflect the demographics of America and that the impact of early primaries and caucuses is largely media driven. That said, there is an impact:

The American Res. Group Poll taken from 01/04 - 01/05 showed Obama with a 12.0 point lead compared to a 4 point deficit 3 days earlier.
Rasmussen shows Obama up ten points on 01/04 compared to down by 3 on December 18.
CNN/WMUR/UNH has Obama by one on o1/04-01/05 instead of the 4 point Clinton lead they recorded on 12/27-12-30.

I think it’s difficult that these swings are simply coincidental to the Iowa results.

Because Huckabee’s success was so dependent on the Christian right it’s uncertain how the GOP race will be shaped but I suspect he will benefit in SC and FL if not NH.

Left by Preston on January 6th, 2008 at 7:39 am

To set the record straight:
I protest when someone tells me what I think or believe.

I never told you what you believe. I simply suggest that people believe what is convenient for them to believe. If you had $1000 on the Jets to beat the Patriots you could probably convince yourself that the NYJ offensive line is just about ready for a breakout game.

Iowa…is crucial?
Really, I don’t know if you misunderstand on purpose or not. For me to suggest that Iowa has been crucial (in 76 and 04) does not imply that I believe Iowa will be crucial in 08. It is simply a possibility- strong enough that your casual dismissal seems willful.

Given the shocking swing of poll results in the last 4 days it looks like I may be proved right- but I’ll wait to see.

Left by Preston on January 7th, 2008 at 7:31 am

It sounds like you really want to believe that

That’s what you said to me, since the record is still being set straight.
For the record, it doesn’t matter if I want to believe that or not, it is what I believe. So either you misunderstood me, you are calling me a liar, or you are trying to tell me what to think. I was trying to be polite, but what I should have said was effoff.
You say this:

The Iowa caucuses can pointed out as crucial in 76 and 2004 at the very least

I say this:

Iowa…is crucial?
Please!

And now you say this:

Really, I don’t know if you misunderstand on purpose or not. For me to suggest that Iowa has been crucial (in 76 and 04) does not imply that I believe Iowa will be crucial in 08. It is simply a possibility- strong enough that your casual dismissal seems willful.

Once again, effoff. I said I believe it is a coffee klatch! It has no more significance than 10% of a sparsely populated state can possibly have on a general election. I don’t care about the opinion polls that much, only vote tallies. If I cared about polls, that poll I saw where the vast majority of prison inmates were forced to eat mashed potatoes as a child, could be a predictor of criminal behavior, upon further review.
Speak for yourself and what you deem important. I’m not a liberal, and don’t need someone to believe, feel, or think for me.

Left by no2liberals on January 7th, 2008 at 2:22 pm

So either you misunderstood me, you are calling me a liar, or you are trying to tell me what to think

None of the above.

It has no more significance than 10% of a sparsely populated state can possibly have on a general election

Have you read any newspapers in the past 4 days?

Your comment illustrates my point exactly- your belief that Iowa is insignificant seems willful in its disregard of events. Who cares if it is 10% of a small, rural state? If the voters of NH, SC, FL, and the rest of the Union believe it means something then it means something.

I don’t doubt the sincerity of your comment- the human mind is a remarkable thing- I only suspect that your comment conveniently aligns with your political desires, ie- you probably aren’t a Huckabee supporter.

Left by Preston on January 7th, 2008 at 3:53 pm

Very perceptive!
I am willingly and willfully stating, for the umpteenth time, Iowa means diddly, in my view. My first comment made that very clear.
I think even less of NH’s significance, being a state that is filled with liberals that fled Mass. because of the high taxes, as well as the countless number of people that are bused in from out of state to vote in it.
As I said before, and try and comprehend what I have told you, I am waiting for the vote count after Super Tuesday, not on some daily snapshot opinion poll.
To further illustrate your poor prognostication abilities, I am a Huckabee supporter, even though I do have some concerns about his ability to conduct the GWOT. I’ve met the man, spent almost an hour with him just months before he became a candidate, and know him to be a good man.

Left by no2liberals on January 7th, 2008 at 8:05 pm

I am a Huckabee supporter

I’m surprised to hear that. I’ll admit I misjudged your motivations yet I still think your analysis is off- particularly on the Democratic side.

Left by Preston on January 7th, 2008 at 10:07 pm

I’ll try and find that mashed tater poll for you.

Left by no2liberals on January 7th, 2008 at 11:27 pm

No2-
Congratulations on having the sense to ignore the polls. (I still think the criticism of Iowa as a ‘coffee klatch’ is irrelevant but your prediction was correct, nonetheless)

Left by Preston on January 9th, 2008 at 10:20 am