While I’m busy picking on the kids at Burnt Orange Report (who, I have been informed no longer live in campus dorms, and some of who have already graduated from college…kudos to them on that achievement) — I must acknowledge how difficult it must have been for them to write this post in which they make their predictions for the federal races in the November elections.
Their bold predictions:
Federal Races – U.S. Senate & Congressional Races
- President: Solid McCain
- TX-Sen (Cornyn vs. Noriega): Likely Cornyn
- TX-07 (Skelley vs. Culberson): Lean Culberson
- TX-10 (Doherty vs. McCaul): Lean McCaul
- TX-22 (Lampson vs. Olson) : Toss-Up
So, they’re pretty much predicting a clean-sweep by the Republicans here in Texas. Which makes sense since a Democrat last won a statewide election in, what? 1988?
More telling is that they’ve picked Cornyn over their boy Noriega…for whom at least one BOR editor/writer works on his campaign team. That one really had to sting.
While I think that they’re correct in predicting a GOP sweep, I think their margins of victory are a little off. So I’ve corrected them to reflect reality:
- President: Solid Guaranteed McCain — I’ll put my next two paychecks against your next paycheck if you think otherwise.
- TX-Sen (Cornyn vs. Noriega): Likely Guaranteed Cornyn — did you watch the debate? Sorry, kids, but the rest of Texas ain’t Travis County. The rest of this state is pretty solid Republican and will vote that way in record numbers. Same bet as above applies.
- TX-07 (Skelley vs. Culberson): Lean Strong Culberson — A rising star in GOP politics. One of the most principled men in all of Congress. His constituents know and respect this.
- TX-10 (Doherty vs. McCaul): Lean McCaul — OK, you kids are right on this. It does lean McCaul. But it’s a steap lean, and it’s not going to go the other way.
- TX-22 (Lampson vs. Olson) : Toss-Up Strong Olson — You kids are really putting to much weight on Lampson’s incumbency. This is the most solidly conservative district in Texas. Lampson was a fluke of circumstances last cycle. He knows it. You know it. Olson will sit in that seat for a long, long time after he wins it in November.
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Things catch on slowly here in Texas y’know. Longtime locally-elected Dixiecrats such as sheriffs and county commissioners didn’t even start switching their party affiliations until 10 years after Nixon resigned. I doubt Texas will avoid the coming paradigm shift for quite that long given modern communications, but this tsunami will eventually make its way to our shores too.
Dang Pat…I was about to compliment you for actually posting a coherent thought, but then you link to another liberal, leftist blog!
I am disappointed.
But stay on the meds, they seem to be helping.
Get comfortable with that emotion. It should serve you well in the years to come.
What a difference six weeks makes:
Ah Septemeber, when Robbie smugly celebrated the “brilliance” of Mccain’s VP pick, while I marked it as the beginning of the end of his incoherent campaign. How’s that crow’s pie tasting right now?
If McCain wins, the Democrats will continue to control Capitol Hill for at least six years.
If Obama wins, the Democrats will lose control of both houses in two years.