I’ve been saying he’s toast for quite some time. But now more-and-more people are chiming in and seeing the same thing.
Over at Red State, Dan McLaughlin backs it up with lots and lots of data and analysis:
Barack Obama is toast. This is not something I say lightly. I generally try to remain cautious about predictions, because the prediction business is a humbling one. I have never been especially bullish on Mitt Romney, and I spent most of the summer and early fall arguing that this was basically a neck-and-neck race that would go down to the wire. But in the end, two things stand out:
One, Mitt Romney has a consistent, significant lead among independent voters, which increasingly looks like a double-digit lead. This is especially clear in national polls, but can also be seen in the key swing state polls. It’s been a hard enough number for the past few weeks now, even as the last of the debates gets baked into the polls, that there’s little chance that Obama can turn it around in the 11 days remaining in this race. In fact, Obama has been underwater with independents almost continuously since the middle of 2009.
Two, to overcome losing independents by more than a few points, Obama needs to have a decisive advantage in Democratic turnout, roughly on the order of – or in some places exceeding – the advantage he enjoyed in 2008, when Democrats nationally had a 7-point advantage (39-32). Yet nearly every indicator we have of turnout suggests that, relative to Republicans, the Democrats are behind where they were in 2008. Surveys by the two largest professional pollsters, Rasmussen and Gallup, actually suggest that Republicans will have a turnout advantage, which has happened only once (in the 2002 midterms) in the history of exit polling and probably hasn’t happened in a presidential election year since the 1920s.
Those two facts alone caused me to conclude at the end of last week that Obama will lose – perhaps lose a very close race, but lose just the same. That conclusion is only underscored by the fact that, historically, there is little reason to believe that the remaining undecided voters will break for an incumbent in tough economic times. He will lose the national popular vote, and the fact that he has remained competitive to the end in the two key swing states he needs to win (Ohio and Wisconsin) will not save him.
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I’ve felt this to be true ever since the first Presidential Debate. The major media can no longer portray the governor as a robot or uncaring individual. They can now compare the two and there is no way the governor can come out behind! 8)
I fully agree. Obama has the media covering up for him. I listen to O’Reilly and Hannity.. I wish Glenn Beck was still on Fox News but he was far TOO Honest and critical of the Government and President..
But…
You must be a lesbian, I mean – gayyyyyy
Hey Amensty girl: you have no respect for human rights if you think that aborting a growing human being is the right thing to do. All of us whether the result of normal sexual encounter or rape, have the potential for to become valuable citizens and SHOULD be afforded the opportunity to LIVE.
Now, take a hike to the Amnesty and show them your true colors. Better yet, I wil write AIUSA myself to advise them about your true colors. You disgust me…
Too much study of the bible removes your real life view that’s one of the reasons your guys lost yesterday your view has lost track of time we are soon reaching 2013
Your right, sometimes people become ” religiously handicapped ” BUT if the Obama administration where MORE considerate of the Christian Ethic we wouldn’t be having some of the problems we are facing today… The news announced this morning that WE, the tax paying public may be paying for sex change operations.. We’re already paying for abortions throught Panned Parenthood..
Steve: you are completely right!!!
It’s been so hard on me, living with a kind of yucky vaginal discharge.
You are a fucking idiot to bring up my wife into your diatribe about Thomas Rykala. You have beef with me because I call you liberal morons on your bullshit, then insult me, I have thick skin and will respond in kind but to drag someone’s spouse through mud. You are a lowlife for doing so.
This not about any Bible Anon. This is about respecting ALL human rights. Julia the Amnesty Girl and liberal democrats, will bash us for supporting the death penalty but stand for abortion rights??? Is that not an equivalent of population control championed by you guys (and gals) so called defenders of human rights? Think about that for a minute and perhaps you will experience a Eureka Moment.
Practice what you preach.
Thank you, Thomas
Julia: read my comment to Anon above and chew on it for a minute. See if you can figure it out.
I am married and you are a lesbian. Cannot happen.
How does it feel to be absolutely wrong on both counts? Not only did he win the presidency, he also won the popular vote.
You guys will be kicking and slapping yourselves starting 01/01/13 until the end of this presidency. The things ahead will take you for a spin and you will lose that smirk fast. Mark my words…
I’m practicing saying “we told you so,” because I anticipate using it A LOT over the next four years.
I’m just practicing.
It’s just adorable how you keep making predictions.
Keep it up, and eventually maybe – eventually – you’ll get one right.
Listening to the news first thing I hear is that the Stock Market went down day after the re-election.. Food stamps up 71%. Hillary Clinton, public wife of Bill Clinton the countries second Big Lie Teller after Nixon, announces she is running. What’s next,, legalize,, the New Black Panthers so they can sit in Congress and the Senate…
Obama’s Grandma is happy..
>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/07/sarah-onyango-obama-grandma-grandmother-celebrates-in-kenya-video-photos_n_2088010.html?ref=topbar
I SUCK!
You have to return to Evans and friends on AIUSA Julia dear!!! They love you there. Bye bye
I just remembered: you friend Brian Evans deletes my comments daily from AI because I call him on being a thug lover and all this interference with executing worthless PoS murderers. Since you are Evans’ second in command Amnesty girl, ask him how come? Oh, and tell him to check his facts before he makes another murderer a martyr.
Amnesty? Hunh…and all this time I thought it was AmNasty.